Exploratory findings and confirmatory tests require different labels

Exploratory analysis generates possibilities from data. Confirmatory analysis tests a specified prediction with an analysis plan that is not chosen because of the observed result. Preregistration records that plan in advance and helps readers distinguish planned work from later changes.

Illustrative example: a workshop survey shows an unexpected association for one age group. Reporting it as an exploratory lead preserves its value. Presenting it as the single predicted outcome while omitting the other groups examined hides how the finding was selected.

Before examining results, specify the main question, outcome, exclusions, analysis, and any conditional decision rules. Report deviations and additional analyses transparently. A preregistration can include planned exploratory work; the important issue is whether a claimed test was independent of the result being used to support it.

The distinction matters when multiple plausible analyses could produce a compelling story. Preregistration does not guarantee good design, correct measurement, complete reporting, or truth. Unexpected findings can motivate a new test with independent data rather than being discarded.

Evidence status: source-based synthesis. Examples are illustrative; no new experiment or independent outcome verification is claimed.